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As the U.S., Israel and Iran agree to a tentative ceasefire, a Syracuse University expert is available to provide context and analysis. , history professor in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, specializes in U.S. foreign relations and the modern Middle East. He shared his comments below. To schedule an interview, please contact Vanessa Marquette, media relations specialist, at vrmarque@syr.edu.

Professor Khalil writes:

“The two-week ceasefire is welcome news. This conflict was entirely avoidable and the fault lies entirely with President Donald Trump. In 2018, he abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for Iran’s nuclear program and replaced it with a maximum pressure campaign that failed. In his second term, he twice attacked Iran with Israel while using negotiations as a ruse. The second attack and ensuing war were based on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s inaccurate assessments of the enervated state of the Iranian government and military. Trump launched the attack on Iran against the advice of key Pentagon planners and the intelligence community and without consulting Washington’s European allies or its Arab Gulf partners.

“Despite the shock of the initial decapitation strikes, Iran’s retaliatory attacks across the Persian Gulf on U.S. bases as well as toward targets in Israel demonstrated that U.S. forces were caught unprepared by the response. U.S. bases across the region suffered extensive damage as did energy and other infrastructure of the Arab Gulf states. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz also shocked Washington and created the gravest energy crisis of the modern era. The ripple effects of the energy crisis on all aspects of global society and a range of industries from agriculture and technology to health care and transportation will be felt for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

“The two-week cease-fire benefits both sides. The United States and Israel are reportedly low on interceptors and smart bombs as well as military targets. In addition, Israel and the Arab Gulf states have suffered significant damage that will take time to rebuild. Furthermore, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon has been a failure as Netanyahu underestimated Hezbollah’s strength and determination to stymie a ground invasion. The ceasefire will help ease the energy markets as well as global stock exchanges and bond markets. However, food and energy prices will remain high and shortages of fertilizer will have implications for food production for the rest of the year.

“Iran has been heavily damaged by U.S. and Israeli air strikes and civilian casualties have been high. However, the government and military remain in place and are arguably more popular than before the war due to nationalist opposition to being attacked. In addition, Trump and Netanyahu’s plans for regime change are in tatters. Iran still maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz and all of its territory. It also retains a significant arsenal of missiles and drones should fighting renew as well as its supply of highly enriched uranium. Most important, President Trump acknowledged that it was Iran’s 10-point proposal for ending the conflict that would be the basis for negotiations and not his maximalist positions that initiated the conflict. Should an agreement be reached based on Iran’s proposal, especially the ending of sanctions and guarantees against future attack, then Tehran will emerge from this war bruised but victorious—the exact opposite of what Trump and Netanyahu claimed would occur.

“President Trump’s already battered international reputation has been further tarnished by the surprise attack under cover of negotiations and his increasingly petulant and profane threats. These actions served to further undermine America’s reputation, its relations with partners and allies, and revealed that the United States under Trump was not only unreliable but unstable. This was exacerbated by Trump’s decision to attack Iran with Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes due to Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza. Although Trump will claim victory, as he has for over a month, this is an embarrassing defeat for the United States that has exposed the fragility of its global military posture. And it will have implications for the remainder of Trump’s second term and beyond.”